That’s right folks, our great national holiday is only a day away: the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby. This time tomorrow, I’ll be at the track on my way to a good drunk and reviewing, for the hundredth time, the field and odds for the race. No matter what happens with the results, a good time will surely be had by me.
As you well know by now, I’m a compulsive gambler. And if there’s one thing I know about compulsive gamblers, you should never take their advice on the subject of wagering. Nevertheless, I’m going to share with you, gentle readers, my current picks.
The race time favorite is going to be Looking for Lucky, a Bob Baffert trained entrant. Obviously, this horse has the pedigree and record that supports him going off at a mere 3 to 1. He also has the advantage of running in the first position. For a straight bet, however, these odds are simply too short to play, though you should consider this horse in any exotic wagering.
I see Dean’s Kitten, currently going off at 50 to 1 to be an interesting long shot wager. Though he did poorly on his only dirt race, last year’s Pilgrim, he has the ability to close late. If the race is tight and an opportunity presents itself, don’t be surprised to catch the Kitten coming down the stretch and hitting the board at a huge price.
I’ve always been a big fan of trainer D. Wayne Lukas. This is why I just can’t ignore Dublin, a chestnut colt. He has an excellent pedigree and is in the hands of the Derby master Lukas, which almost automatically makes him a threat. At 12 to 1, I’m going to get some action on this horse. If the price falls below 10 to 1, however, I may change my mind.
There you have it, degenerates. Now go out there and get your gamble on!
Interesting choices. There a couple of horses in the field I would like your opinion on. Though it surely is a long shot, Backtalk is the son of Smarty Jones. Let's not forget last years surprise of Summer Bird, son of Birdstone who won it a few years back at 36-1 odds. Summer Bird was ridden by Kent Desormeaux who will be on Paddy O'Prado, they say he could have an edge if it rains. Paddy O'Prado is currently at 20-1.
ReplyDeleteThen there is Super Saver ridden by Calvin Borel who guided Mine That Bird to last years Derby win at 50-1.
Stately Victor is another long shot that intrigues me going off at 30-1.
Very interesting comments. I've got a number of thoughts on them.
ReplyDelete1. Backtalk does have the Smarty Jones pedigree. But beyond that, what has he done?
(Third place in the Illinois Derby) Hey, I don't know, at 50-1 they are all worth betting. I just can't get on this one.
2. Love Desormeaux. Always dangerous. Might have to put some money on Paddy O'Prado myself. (especially if its raining) But if it goes much lower than the current price (20-1) I'm gonna get anxious.
3. I think Calvin Borel is the greatest. It was so fun to see him ride a Derby Winner. He's a great jockey and a true personality. That being said, I'm not going to bet Super Saver and I can't really say why. I guess I just believe that Borel ran his perfect race too recently to merit a repeat. Could be really faulty logic.
3.
Well I'll be a monkey's uncle...right you were with Super Saver, Nate. Thank God I took your advice and put down a little action on it with my last ten dollars. Borel rides another masterful race.
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